Modeling Insights from COVID-19 Incidence Data: Part II -- Why are compartment models so accurate?

Abstract

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although real populations have heterogeneities in contacts not represented in the SIR model, it nevertheless well fits real U.S. state data at multiple points throughout the pandemic. Here we demonstrate mathematically how closely the simple continuous SIR model approximates a model which includes heterogeneous contacts, and provide insight onto how one can interpret parameters gleaned from regression in the context of heterogeneous dynamics.