COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: Lessons for the Vaccination Campaign

Abstract

Assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and public health policies is essential for a rapid recovery. In this paper, we analyze the impact of mobility contraction on furloughed workers and excess deaths in Italy. We provide a link between the reduction of mobility and excess deaths, confirming that the first countrywide lockdown has been effective in curtailing the COVID-19 epidemics. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 10% leads to a mortality reduction of 5% whereas it leads to an increase of 50% in full time equivalent furloughed workers. Based on our results, we propose a prioritizing policy for the most advanced stage of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, considering the unemployment risk of the healthy active population. Keywords: COVID-19 mortality; Furlough schemes; Economic impact of lockdowns; Vaccination rollout: Unemployment risk