Coupled Contagion: A Two-Fears Epidemic Model

Abstract

We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears evolve and interact in ways that shape distancing behavior, vaccine uptake, and their relaxation. These behavioral dynamics in turn can amplify or suppress disease transmission, which feeds back to affect behavior. The model reveals several coupled contagion mechanisms for multiple epidemic waves. Methodologically, the paper advances infectious disease modeling by including human behavioral adaptation, drawing on the neuroscience of fear learning, extinction, and transmission.