Identification and prediction of time-varying parameters of COVID-19 model: a data-driven deep learning approach

Abstract

Data-driven deep learning provides efficient algorithms for parameter identification of epidemiology models. Unlike the constant parameters, the complexity of identifying time-varying parameters is largely increased. In this paper, a variant of physics-informed neural network (PINN) is adopted to identify the time-varying parameters of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model for the spread of COVID-19 by fitting daily reported cases. The learned parameters are verified by utilizing an ordinary differential equation solver to compute the corresponding solutions of this compartmental model. The effective reproduction number based on these parameters is calculated. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed to predict the future weekly time-varying parameters. The numerical simulations demonstrate that PINN combined with LSTM yields accurate and effective results.