Model combinations through revised base-rates

Abstract

Standard selection criteria for forecasting models focus on information that is calculated for each series independently, disregarding the general tendencies and performances of the candidate models. In this paper, we propose a new way to statistical model selection and model combination that incorporates the base-rates of the candidate forecasting models, which are then revised so that the per-series information is taken into account. We examine two schemes that are based on the precision and sensitivity information from the contingency table of the base rates. We apply our approach on pools of exponential smoothing models and a large number of real time series and we show that our schemes work better than standard statistical benchmarks. We discuss the connection of our approach to other cross-learning approaches and offer insights regarding implications for theory and practice.