Small World Model for scaling up prediction result based on SEIR model

Abstract

Data-driven epidemic simulation helps better policymaking. Compared with macro-scale simulations driven by statistical data, individual-level GPS data can afford finer and spatialized results. However, the big GPS data, usually collected from mobile phone users, cannot cover all populations. Therefore, this study proposes a Small World Model, to map the results from the "small world" (simulation with partially sampled data) to the real world. Based on the basic principles of disease transmission, this study derives two parameters: a time scaling factor to map the simulated period to the real period, and an amount scaling factor to map the simulated infected number to the real infected number. It is believed that this model could convert the simulation of the "small world" into the state of the real world, and analyze the effectiveness of different mobility restriction policies.