Exporters' reaction to positive foreign demand shocks

Abstract

I use the quasi-natural experiment of the 2018 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in China to analyze swine exporters' reaction to a foreign market's positive demand shock. I use the universe of Spanish firms' export transactions to China and other countries, and compare the performance of swine and other exporters before and after the ASF. The ASF almost tripled Spanish swine exporters' sales to China. Swine exporters did not increase exported product portfolio or export revenue concentration in their best-performing products in China after the ASF. The increase in exports to China positively impacted export revenue and survival in third markets. This positive impact was especially intense for small swine exporters. Domestic sales also increased for swine exporters with liquidity constraints before the ASF.