Dynamic and stochastic models of the evolution of aftershocks

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the theory of aftershocks. The history of discovery of the Omori law is briefly described, the initial formulation of the law is given in the form of an algebraic formula describing the decrease in the frequency of aftershocks over time. An important generalization of the Oiori formula which is widely used in modern seismology is presented. The generalized law is also expressed by an algebraic formula, but it contains an additional parameter, which makes it possible to more flexibly approximate the observational data. The alternative approach to the theoretical description of aftershocks is to use the differential evolution models. To simulate the averaged dynamics of aftershocks, it is proposed the Verhulst differential equation, also known as the logistic equation. It is shown that the decrease in the frequency of aftershocks with time at the first stage of evolution occurs according to the Omori hyperbola, i.e. in accordance with the original wording of the law. The paper also proposes a stochastic generalization of the equation for the evolution of aftershocks. A random function of time is added to the right-hand side of the logistic equation to simulate noise that affects a dynamic system. As a result, a stochastic Langevin equation was obtained, which can be used to simulate fluctuations in the frequency of aftershocks.