Black hole mergers of AGN origin in LIGO/Virgo's O1-O3a observing periods

Abstract

The origin of the black hole mergers detected by LIGO and Virgo remains an open question. While the unusual mass and spin of a few events constrain their possible astrophysical formation mechanisms, it is difficult to classify the bulk of the observed mergers. Here we consider the distribution of masses and spins in LIGO/Virgo's first and second observing catalogs, and find that for a significant fraction (25%) of these detected events, an AGN-disk origin model is preferred over a parametric mass-spin model fit to the full GWTC-2 merger sample (Bayes factor $\mathcal{B}>10$). We use this to estimate the black hole merger rate in AGNs to be about $2.8\pm 1.8$\, Gpc$^{-3}$yr$^{-1}$, comparable to theoretical expectations. We find that AGNs can explain the rate and mass distribution of the observed events with primary black hole mass in the pair-instability mass gap ($M\gtrsim50$\, M$_\odot$).