Formally Justifying MDL-based Inference of Cause and Effect

Abstract

The algorithmic independence of conditionals, which postulates that the causal mechanism is algorithmically independent of the cause, has recently inspired many highly successful approaches to distinguish cause from effect given only observational data. Most popular among these is the idea to approximate algorithmic independence via two-part Minimum Description Length (MDL). Although intuitively sensible, the link between the original postulate and practical two-part MDL encodings is left vague. In this work, we close this gap by deriving a two-part formulation of this postulate, in terms of Kolmogorov complexity, which directly links to practical MDL encodings. To close the cycle, we prove that this formulation leads on expectation to the same inference result as the original postulate.