A Digital Twin of a Compartmental Epidemiological Model based on a Stieltjes Differential Equation

Abstract

We introduce a digital twin of the classical compartmental SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) epidemic model and study the interrelation between the digital twin and the system. In doing so, we use Stieltjes derivatives to feed the data from the real system to the virtual model which, in return, improves it in real time. As a byproduct of the model, we present a precise mathematical definition of solution to the problem. We also analyze the existence and uniqueness of solutions, introduce the concept of Main Digital Twin and present some numerical simulations with real data of the COVID-19 epidemic, showing the accuracy of the proposed ideas.