More Generalizable Models For Sepsis Detection Under Covariate Shift

Abstract

Sepsis is a major cause of mortality in the intensive care units (ICUs). Early intervention of sepsis can improve clinical outcomes for sepsis patients. Machine learning models have been developed for clinical recognition of sepsis. A common assumption of supervised machine learning models is that the covariates in the testing data follow the same distributions as those in the training data. When this assumption is violated (e.g., there is covariate shift), models that performed well for training data could perform badly for testing data. Covariate shift happens when the relationships between covariates and the outcome stay the same, but the marginal distributions of the covariates differ among training and testing data. Covariate shift could make clinical risk prediction model nongeneralizable. In this study, we applied covariate shift corrections onto common machine learning models and have observed that these corrections can help the models be more generalizable under the occurrence of covariate shift when detecting the onset of sepsis.