Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification of Local Volatility Model

Abstract

Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data. Unlike most existing point-estimate methods, we cast the large-scale nonlinear inverse problem into the Bayesian framework, yielding a posterior distribution of the local volatility, which naturally quantifies its uncertainty. This extra uncertainty information enables traders and risk managers to make better decisions. To alleviate the computational cost, we apply Karhunen--L\`oeve expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the Gaussian Process prior for local volatility. A modified two-stage adaptive Metropolis algorithm is applied to sample the posterior probability distribution, which further reduces computational burdens caused by repetitive numerical forward option pricing model solver and time of heuristic tuning. We demonstrate our methodology with both synthetic and market data.