Inference on the maximal rank of time-varying covariance matrices using high-frequency data

Abstract

We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix $\Sigma_X(t)$ of a multidimensional continuous semi-martingale $X(t)$. Given high-frequency observations $X(i/n)$, $i=0,\ldots,n$, we test the null hypothesis $rank(\Sigma_X(t))\le r$ for all $t$ against local alternatives where the average $(r+1)$st eigenvalue is larger than some signal detection rate $v_n$. A major problem is that the inherent averaging in local covariance statistics produces a bias that distorts the rank statistics. We show that the bias depends on the regularity and a spectral gap of $\Sigma_X(t)$. We establish explicit matrix perturbation and concentration results that provide non-asymptotic uniform critical values and optimal signal detection rates $v_n$. This leads to a rank estimation method via sequential testing. For a class of stochastic volatility models, we determine data-driven critical values via normed p-variations of estimated local covariance matrices. The methods are illustrated by simulations and an application to high-frequency data of U.S. government bonds.