Dengue transmission dynamics in age-structured human populations in the presence of Wolbachia

Abstract

According to the World Health Organization the global incidence rate of dengue infections have risen drastically in recent years. It is estimated that globally the number of new infections is in the range of $100$ to $400$ million per annum. At the same time a number of recent studies reported the existence of Wolbachia strains, which inhibit dengue virus replication in mosquito species that are primary vectors for dengue transmission. In this study we focus on the impact of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics in an age-structured human population. We introduce a mathematical model, which takes into account age-related effects, such as age-dependent human recovery and mortality rates, as well as age-dependent vector to human dengue transmission efficacy. We deduce an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, which allows us to assess the impact of the above mentioned age-related effects on the local asymptotic stability of the dengue free equilibrium. The formula we deduce for $\mathcal{R}_0$ also shows the intricate relationship between human demography and the presence of a dengue inhibiting Wolbachia strain.