Evolutionary paths under catastrophes

Abstract

We introduce a model to study the impact of catastrophes on evolutionary paths. If we do not allow catastrophes the number of changes in the maximum fitness of a population grows logarithmically with respect to time. Allowing catastrophes (no matter how rare) yields a drastically different behavior. When catastrophes are possible the number of changes in the maximum fitness of the population grows linearly with time. Moreover, the evolutionary paths are a lot less predictable when catastrophes are possible. Our results can be seen as supporting the hypothesis that catastrophes speed up evolution by disrupting dominant species and creating space for new species to emerge and evolve.