GW190521 as a black-hole merger coincident with the ZTF19abanrhr flare

Abstract

We present an analysis that reconciles the gravitational-wave signal GW190521 observed by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors with the electromagnetic flare ZTF19abanrhr observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility. We analyze GW190521 under a mass-ratio prior uniform in $Q \in [1,4]$ and using the state-of-the-art waveform model for black-hole mergers \texttt{NRSur7dq4}. We find a $90\%$ credible region for the black-hole masses extending far outside what originally reported by \cite{GW190521D}, where our maximum likelihood masses reside. We find a $15\%$ probability that both black holes avoid the pair-instability supernova gap. We infer a three-dimensional sky-location highly consistent with ZTF19abanrhr, obtaining an odds-ratio ${\cal{O}}_{C/R}=72:1$ that strongly favors the hypothesis of a true coincidence over a random one. Combining this event with the neutron-star merger GW170817, we estimate a Hubble constant H$_0=72.1^{+10.6}_{-6.4}\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ at the $68\%$ credible level.