Aging and the Narrowing of Scientific Innovation

Abstract

With rising life expectancies around the world and an older scientific workforce than ever before, what does aging mean for individual scientists, and what do aging scientists mean for scientific progress as a whole? Here we examine how scientists and scholars age in terms of how their ideas and contributions relate to the evolving frontier of knowledge and how demographically aging fields relate to field-level advance. At the individual level, we examine how research experiences and choices can moderate the effects of intellectual aging. At the collective level, we explore mechanisms that link individual and collective aging. Prior research focuses on star scientists, their changing dates and rates of breakthrough success throughout history. We explore this for scientists in all fields over time, drawing upon novel deep learning measurements that allow us not only to trace positive attention through citation but also negative attention through explicit criticism with a novel, comprehensive database of over 20,000 human-validated critical citations. We find that younger scientists tend toward disruptive contributions that push the frontier, while older scientists engage in combinatorial innovation with an aging collection of components. This includes analyzing the impact of the 1994 U.S. Supreme Court ruling on mandatory retirement and examining how unexpected collaborations affect citation patterns.