Bayesian Space-time SIR modeling of Covid-19 in two US states during the 2020-2021 pandemic

Abstract

This paper describes the Bayesian SIR modeling of the 3 waves of Covid-19 in two contrasting US states during 2020-2021. A variety of models are evaluated at the county level for goodness-of-fit and an assessment of confounding predictors is also made. It is found that models with three deprivation predictors and neighborhood effects are important. In addition the work index from Google mobility was also found to provide increased explanation of the transmission dynamic.