Crises and Political Polarization: Towards a Better Understanding of the Timing and Impact of Shocks and Media

Abstract

We investigate how crises alter societies by analyzing the timing and channels of change using a longitudinal multi-wave survey of a representative sample of Americans throughout 2020. This methodology allows us to overcome some of the limitations of previous studies and uncover novel insights: (1) individuals with a negative personal experience during a crisis become more pro-welfare spending, in particular for policies they perceive will benefit them personally, and they become less trusting of institutions; (2) indirect shocks or the mere exposure to the crisis doesn't have a similar effect; (3) policy preferences and institutional trust can change quickly after a negative experience; and (4) consuming partisan media can mitigate or exacerbate these effects by distorting perceptions of reality. In an experiment, we find that exposing individuals to the same information can recalibrate distorted perceptions with lasting effects. Using a machine learning model to test for heterogeneous treatment effects, we find a negative personal experience did not make individuals more responsive to the information treatment, suggesting that lived and perceived experiences play an equally important role in changing preferences during a crisis.