Usefulness of the Age-Structured SIR Dynamics in Modelling COVID-19

Abstract

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an empirical validation, and discover the limitations of the model in approximating arbitrary epidemics. We first establish the differential equations defining the age-structured SIR model as the mean-field limits of a continuous-time Markov process that models epidemic spreading on a social network involving random, asynchronous interactions. We then show that, as the population size grows, the infection rate for any pair of age groups converges to its mean-field limit if and only if the edge update rate of the network approaches infinity, and we show how the rate of mean-field convergence depends on the edge update rate. We then propose a system identification method for parameter estimation of the bilinear ODEs of our model, and we test the model performance on a Japanese COVID-19 dataset by generating the trajectories of the age-wise numbers of infected individuals in the prefecture of Tokyo for a period of over 365 days. In the process, we also develop an algorithm to identify the different \textit{phases} of the pandemic, each phase being associated with a unique set of contact rates. Our results show a good agreement between the generated trajectories and the observed ones.