Analysing international events through the lens of statistical physics: the case of Ukraine

Abstract

During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in securing relevant quantitative data on them. Here we analyse a detailed data set of violent events that took place in Ukraine since January 2021, and analyse their temporal and spatial correlations through entropy and complexity metrics, and functional networks. Results depict a complex scenario, with events appearing in a non-random fashion, but with eastern-most regions functionally disconnected from the remainder of the country -- something opposing the widespread "two Ukraines" view. We further draw some lessons and venues for future analyses.