Excess Out-of-Sample Risk and Fleeting Modes

Abstract

Using Random Matrix Theory, we propose a universal and versatile tool to reveal the existence of "fleeting modes", i.e. portfolios that carry statistically significant excess risk, signalling ex-post a change in the correlation structure in the underlying asset space. Our proposed test is furthermore independent of the "true" (but unknown) underlying correlation structure. We show empirically that such fleeting modes exist both in futures markets and in equity markets. We proposed a metric to quantify the alignment between known factors and fleeting modes and identify momentum as a source of excess risk in the equity space.