Grazing bifurcations and transitions between periodic states of the PP04 model for the glacial cycle

Abstract

We look at the periodic behaviour of the Earth's glacial cycles and the transitions between different periodic states when either external parameters (such as $\omega$) or internal parameters (such as $d$) are varied. We model this using the PP04 model of climate change. This is a forced discontinuous Filippov (non-smooth) dynamical system. When periodically forced this has co-existing periodic orbits. We find that the transitions in this system are mainly due to grazing events, leading to grazing bifurcations. An analysis of the grazing bifurcations is given and the impact of these on the domains of attraction and regions of existence of the periodic orbits is determined under various changes in the parameters of the system. Grazing transitions arise for general variations in the parameters (both internal and external) of the PP04 model. We find that the grazing transitions between the period orbits resemble those of the Mid-Pleistocene-Transition.