Network Vector Autoregressive Model for Dyadic Response Variables

Abstract

For general panel data, by introducing network structure, network vector autoregressive (NVAR) model captured the linear inter dependencies among multiple time series. In this paper, we propose network vector autoregressive model for dyadic response variables (NVARD), which describes the dynamic process of dyadic data in the case of the dependencies among different pairs are taken into consideration. Besides, due to the existence of heterogeneity between time and individual, we propose time-varying coefficient network vector autoregressive model for dyadic response variables (VCNVARD). Finally, we apply these models to predict world bilateral trade flows.