A fuzzy derivative model approach to time-series prediction

Abstract

This paper presents a fuzzy system approach to the prediction of nonlinear time-series and dynamical systems. To do this, the underlying mechanism governing a time-series is perceived by a modified structure of a fuzzy system in order to capture the time-series behaviour, as well as the information about its successive time derivatives. The prediction task is carried out by a fuzzy predictor based on the extracted rules and on a Taylor ODE solver. The approach has been applied to a benchmark problem: the Mackey- Glass chaotic time-series. Furthermore, comparative studies with other fuzzy and neural network predictors were made and these suggest equal or even better performance of the herein presented approach.