Does the Catalog of California Earthquakes, with Aftershocks Included, Contain Information about Future Large Earthquakes?

Abstract

Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new technique that enhances our ability to understand the information content of earthquake catalogs. We show that catalogs contain significant information on current hazard and future predictability for large earthquakes.