Examining spatial heterogeneity of ridesourcing demand determinants with explainable machine learning

Abstract

The growing significance of ridesourcing services in recent years suggests a need to examine the key determinants of ridesourcing demand. However, little is known regarding the nonlinear effects and spatial heterogeneity of ridesourcing demand determinants. This study applies an explainable-machine-learning-based analytical framework to identify the key factors that shape ridesourcing demand and to explore their nonlinear associations across various spatial contexts (airport, downtown, and neighborhood). We use the ridesourcing-trip data in Chicago for empirical analysis. The results reveal that the importance of built environment varies across spatial contexts, and it collectively contributes the largest importance in predicting ridesourcing demand for airport trips. Additionally, the nonlinear effects of built environment on ridesourcing demand show strong spatial variations. Ridesourcing demand is usually most responsive to the built environment changes for downtown trips, followed by neighborhood trips and airport trips. These findings offer transportation professionals nuanced insights for managing ridesourcing services.