Expected Mordell-Weil rank heuristics through Sato-Tate, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjectures

Abstract

We present an heuristic argument for the prediction of expected Mordell-Weil rank of elliptic curves over number fields, using Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer's original conjecture and Sato-Tate conjectures. We do calculations in some cases and raise questions about their relations, if any, with the predictions of various average rank models that have been considered.