A Comparative Study of Compartmental Models for COVID-19 Transmission in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1.3 million in Ontario, Canada by June 4, 2022. The continued spread of the virus underlying COVID-19 has been spurred by the emergence of variants since the initial outbreak in December, 2019. Much attention has thus been devoted to tracking and modelling the transmission of COVID-19. Compartmental models are commonly used to mimic epidemic transmission mechanisms and are easy to understand. Their performance in real-world settings, however, needs to be more thoroughly assessed. In this comparative study, we examine five compartmental models -- four existing ones and an extended model that we propose -- and analyze their ability to describe COVID-19 transmission in Ontario from January 2022 to June 2022.