Falsifiable analog model predictions of $W$ mass in CDF II and ATLAS

Abstract

The CDF II measurement of $W$ boson mass is at significant ($6.9\,\sigma$) tension with the Standard Model, and moderate ($4.0\,\sigma$) tension with recent results from ATLAS. Any attempt to interpret this as a signature of new physics requires high-precision, robust, falsifiable predictions. The Classical Analogue to the Standard Model In pseudo-Riemannian spacetime (CASMIR) is an analogue model predicting $W$ and $Z$ boson masses of $80.3587(22)~\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $91.1877(35)~\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ respectively. During baryon collisions satisfying $\sqrt{s}< 3.09~\mathrm{TeV}$, CASMIR predicts a color-mediated enhancement of $W$ and $Z$ boson masses, becoming $80.4340(22)~\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $91.1922(35)~\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ respectively. The unenhanced masses are consistent with ATLAS data collected at $\sqrt{s}=7~\mathrm{TeV}$, and the enhanced masses are consistent with CDF II data collected at $\sqrt{s}=1.96~\mathrm{TeV}$. According to CASMIR, operation of the LHC at centre-of-mass energies small compared with $3.09~\mathrm{TeV}$ but large enough for $W$ boson formation should permit ATLAS to replicate the result from CDF II.