Mathematical modeling of trend cycle: Fad, Fashion and Classic

Abstract

In this work, we suggest a system of differential equations that quantitatively models the formulation and evolution of a trend cycle through the consideration of underlying dynamics between the trend participants. Our model captures the five stages of a trend cycle, namely, the onset, rise, peak, decline, and obsolescence. It also provides a unified mathematical criterion/condition to characterize the fad, fashion and classic. We prove that the solution of our model can capture various trend cycles. Numerical simulations are provided to show the expressive power of our model.