Spreading properties in Kermack-McKendrick models with nonlocal spatial interactions -- A new look

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the famous Kermack-McKendrick model with nonlocal spatial interactions by shedding new lights on associated spreading properties and we also prove the existence and uniqueness of traveling fronts. Unlike previous studies that have focused on integrated versions of the model for susceptible population, we analyze the long time dynamics of the underlying age-structured model for the cumulative density of infected individuals and derive precise asymptotic behavior for the infected population. Our approach consists in studying the long time dynamics of an associated transport equation with nonlocal spatial interactions whose spreading properties are close to those of classical Fisher-KPP reaction-diffusion equations. Our study is self-contained and relies on comparison arguments.