Macroeconomic factors and Stock exchange return: A Statistical Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between the Dhaka Stock exchange index return and macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation, money supply etc. The long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns has been analyzed by using the Johnson Cointegration test, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The results revealed the existence of cointegrating relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomic variables in the Dhaka stock exchange. The consumer price index, money supply, and exchange rates proved to be strongly associated with stock returns, while market capitalization was found to be negatively associated with stock returns. The findings suggest that in the long run, the Dhaka stock exchange is reactive to macroeconomic indicators.