Electricity Load and Peak Forecasting: Feature Engineering, Probabilistic LightGBM and Temporal Hierarchies

Abstract

We describe our experience in developing a predictive model that placed high position in the BigDeal Challenge 2022, an energy competition of load and peak forecasting. We present a novel procedure for feature engineering and feature selection, based on cluster permutation of temperatures and calendar variables. We adopted gradient boosting of trees and we enhance its capabilities with trend modelling and distributional forecasts. We also include an approach to forecast combination known as temporal hierarchies, which further improves the accuracy.