A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans

Abstract

Current research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way, and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aquatic settings. It is known, however, that TI on Earth (i.e., humans) arose on land. Motivated by these considerations, we present a Bayesian framework to assess the prospects for the emergence of TIs in land- and ocean-based habitats (LBHs and OBHs). If all factors are equally conducive for TIs to arise in LBHs and OBHs, we demonstrate that the evolution of TIs in LBHs (which includes humans) might have very low odds of roughly $1$-in-$10^3$ to $1$-in-$10^4$, thus outwardly contradicting the Copernican Principle. Hence, we elucidate three avenues whereby the Copernican Principle can be preserved: (i) the emergence rate of TIs is much lower in OBHs, (ii) the habitability interval for TIs is much shorter in OBHs, and (iii) only a small fraction of worlds with OBHs comprise appropriate conditions for effectuating TIs. We also briefly discuss methods for empirically falsifying our predictions, and comment on the feasibility of supporting TIs in aerial environments.