Dynamic tipping and cyclic folds, in a one-dimensional non-smooth dynamical system linked to climate models

Abstract

We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous dynamical systems, modelling thermohaline circulation. These exhibit non-smooth fold bifurcations which arise when a saddle-point and a focus meet at a border collision bifurcation. By using techniques from the theory of non-smooth dynamical systems we are able to provide precise estimates for the general tipping behaviour at the non-smooth fold as parameters vary. These are significantly different from the usual tipping point estimates, showing a much more rapid rate of tipping. We also see very rapid, and non-monotone, changes in the tipping points due to the effect of non-smoothness in the system. All of this has important implications for the prediction of tipping in climate systems.