Epidemic models with varying infectivity on a refining spatial grid. I. The SI model

Abstract

We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration processes in either of the two states are assumed to be Markovian. We establish a functional law of large numbers by letting jointly $N$ the initial approximate number of individuals on each node go to infinity and $\varepsilon$ the mesh size of the grid go to zero. The limit is a system of parabolic PDE/integral equations. The constraint on the speed of convergence of the parameters $N$ and $\varepsilon$ is that $N\varepsilon^d \to \infty$ as $(N, \varepsilon)\to (+\infty, 0)$.