Uniform Inference for Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes

Abstract

Uniformly valid inference for cointegrated vector autoregressive processes has so far proven difficult due to certain discontinuities arising in the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. We extend asymptotic results from the univariate case to multiple dimensions and show how inference can be based on these results. Furthermore, we show that lag augmentation and a recent instrumental variable procedure can also yield uniformly valid tests and confidence regions. We verify the theoretical findings and investigate finite sample properties in simulation experiments for two specific examples.