Artificial Neural Network Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Infection Count

Abstract

It is well known that the confirmed COVID-19 infection is only a fraction of the true fraction. In this paper we use an artificial neural network to learn the connection between the confirmed infection count, the testing data, and the true infection count. The true infection count in the training set is obtained by backcasting from the death count and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). Multiple factors are taken into consideration in the estimation of IFR. We also calibrate the recovered true COVID-19 case count with an SEIR model.