Cognitive Bias and Belief Revision

Abstract

In this paper we formalise three types of cognitive bias within the framework of belief revision: confirmation bias, framing bias, and anchoring bias. We interpret them generally, as restrictions on the process of iterated revision, and we apply them to three well-known belief revision methods: conditioning, lexicographic revision, and minimal revision. We investigate the reliability of biased belief revision methods in truth tracking. We also run computer simulations to assess the performance of biased belief revision in random scenarios.