Actuarial Implications and Modeling of Yellow Virus on Sugar Beet After the EU's Ban on Neonicotinoids and Climate Change

Abstract

Following the EU's decision to ban neonicotinoids, this article investigates the impacts of yellow virus on sugar beet yields under the ban and under current and future climates. Using a model that factors in key variables such as sowing dates, phenological stages, first aphid flight and aphid abundance, simulations are performed using long-period climate datasets as inputs. Coupled with incidence and sugar yield loss assumptions, this model allows to reconstruct the impact of yellow virus on sugar beet yields using a so called 'as if' approach. By simulating the effects of viruses over a longer period of time, as if neonicotinoids weren't used in the past, this methodology allows an accurate assessment of risks associated with yellow viruses, as well as impact of future agroecological mesures. The study eventually provides an actuarial rating for an insurance policy that compensates the losses triggered by those viruses.