Uses of Sub-sample Estimates to Reduce Errors in Stochastic Optimization Models

Abstract

Optimization software enables the solution of problems with millions of variables and associated parameters. These parameters are, however, often uncertain and represented with an analytical description of the parameter's distribution or with some form of sample. With large numbers of such parameters, optimization of the resulting model is often driven by mis-specifications or extreme sample characteristics, resulting in solutions that are far from a true optimum. This paper describes how asymptotic convergence results may not be useful in large-scale problems and how the optimization of problems based on sub-sample estimates may achieve improved results over models using full-sample solution estimates. A motivating example and numerical results from a portfolio optimization problem demonstrate the potential improvement. A theoretical analysis also provides insight into the structure of problems where sub-sample optimization may be most beneficial.