Analysis of four sets of global average temperature anomalies

Abstract

Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values of the time, at which the crossing of the $1.5^\circ$C threshold above the baseline will occur, are extracted from the two datasets which are accompanied by meaningful uncertainties; the two estimates are in the 2030s and differ by about four years: mid-2032 and mid-2036.