Analytic models for active shooter incidents with civilian resistance

Abstract

The number of active shooter incidents in the US has been increasing alarmingly. It is imperative for the government as well as the public to understand these events. Though both analytic and agent-based models have been proposed for studying active shooter incidents, there are only a few analytic models in the literature, and none incorporate civilian resistance. This article analytically investigates the survival probability of a civilian during an active shooter incident when he can hide, fight, or run, depending on whether or not he is in a closed arena and whether or not he is armed. The key findings are (i) the civilian's chance of survival decreases over time, irrespective of his action; (ii) there are desperate situations in which a civilian should fight back even if he is unarmed; (iii) carrying a firearm does not always increase the civilian's chance of survival during an active shooter incident; (iv) carrying a firearm makes "resistance" more likely to be the optimal action of the civilian; (v) "hide" might be the best action even if the civilian is armed; (vi) more armed civilians might increase a civilian's chance of survival, but it is not always the case.