Hierarchical Ensemble-Based Feature Selection for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

We introduce a novel ensemble approach for feature selection based on hierarchical stacking for non-stationarity and/or a limited number of samples with a large number of features. Our approach exploits the co-dependency between features using a hierarchical structure. Initially, a machine learning model is trained using a subset of features, and then the output of the model is updated using other algorithms in a hierarchical manner with the remaining features to minimize the target loss. This hierarchical structure allows for flexible depth and feature selection. By exploiting feature co-dependency hierarchically, our proposed approach overcomes the limitations of traditional feature selection methods and feature importance scores. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on synthetic and well-known real-life datasets, providing significant scalable and stable performance improvements compared to the traditional methods and the state-of-the-art approaches. We also provide the source code of our approach to facilitate further research and replicability of our results.