Multi-step ahead prediction intervals for non-parametric autoregressions via bootstrap: consistency, debiasing and pertinence

Abstract

To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series model, and show that the proposed point predictions are consistent with the true optimal predictor. We construct a quantile prediction interval that is asymptotically valid. Moreover, using a debiasing technique, we can asymptotically approximate the distribution of multi-step ahead non-parametric estimation by bootstrap. As a result, we can build bootstrap prediction intervals that are pertinent, i.e., can capture the model estimation variability, thus improving upon the standard quantile prediction intervals. Simulation studies are given to illustrate the performance of our point predictions and pertinent prediction intervals for finite samples.