A Framework for Modeling, Analyzing, and Decision-Making in Disease Spread Dynamics and Medicine/Vaccine Distribution

Abstract

The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse population centres. Taking inspiration from historical precedents such as the Spanish flu and COVID-19, and geographical economic theories such as Central place theory, the simulation integrates agent-based modelling to depict the movement and interactions of individuals within different settlement hierarchies. Additionally, the framework provides a tool for decision-makers to assess and strategize optimal distribution plans for limited resources like vaccines or cures as well as to impose mobility restrictions.