The Sleeping Beauty Problem -- A Real-World Solution

Abstract

The Sleeping Beauty Problem remains a paradoxical problem that penetrates multiple disciplines that include probability theory, self-locating belief, decision theory, cognitive science, the philosophy of mathematics and science. It asks the credence of Sleeping Beauty on a coin toss being Heads in the experiment that incites two main stances, that of the Halfers and Thirders. Here a real-world empirical approach numerically highlights breakdown between these groups and considers the role of how a real-world application of such an experiment with sleep induction by anesthesia and pharmacological amnesia induction would affect the coin credence probability of Sleeping Beauty.