European Football Player Valuation: Integrating Financial Models and Network Theory

Abstract

This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a "passing matrix" to encapsulate player interactions on the field, utilizing centrality measures to quantify individual influence. Unlike traditional approaches, such as regressing on past performance-salary data, this model focuses on in-game performance as a player's contributions evolve over time. Consequently, our model provides a dynamic and individualized framework for ascertaining a player's fair market value. The methodology is empirically validated through a case study in European football, employing real-world match and financial data. This cross-disciplinary mechanism for player valuation adapts the effect of connecting pay with performance, first seen in Scully (1974), to include in-game contributions as well as expected present valuation of stochastic variables.